AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
$99.31
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.0% below fair value
You pay
$99.31
Bear
$241.73
Fair
$291.76
Bull
$291.76
Bear
$241.73
+143.4%
ROTCE 14.2% → 3.31x TBV
Fair
$291.76
+193.8%
ROTCE 19.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$291.76
+193.8%
ROTCE 21.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
19.0%
7.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.36x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$121.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
140%
Summary
With ROTCE of 19.0% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $72.94 tangible book, implying $291.76 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.75.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $27.75 (90% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $121.50 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 140% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly