AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
$113.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.5% below fair value
You pay
$113.06
Bear
$207.39
Fair
$248.52
Bull
$248.52
Bear
$207.39
+83.4%
ROTCE 14.2% → 3.34x TBV
Fair
$248.52
+119.8%
ROTCE 19.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$248.52
+119.8%
ROTCE 21.8% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.57x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $127.80 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $248.52 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $27.84 (90% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $127.80 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 126% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly