AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
$97.43
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.6% below fair value
You pay
$97.43
Bear
$263.34
Fair
$291.76
Bull
$291.76
Bear
$263.34
+170.3%
ROTCE 14.2% → 3.61x TBV
Fair
$291.76
+199.5%
ROTCE 19.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$291.76
+199.5%
ROTCE 21.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
19.0%
6.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.34x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$116.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
150%
Summary
With ROTCE of 19.0% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $72.94 tangible book, implying $291.76 per share. DDM cross-check: $28.31.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $28.31 (90% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $116.80 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 150% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly