AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
$390.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.8% above fair value
You pay
$390.29
Bear
$159.93
Fair
$285.28
Bull
$439.86
Bear
$159.93
-59.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$285.28
-26.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$439.86
+12.7%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
51.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.7%
vs 19.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$655.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $285.28 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 508% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $655.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions