AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
$386.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 136.1% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$163.47
-57.6%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $653.89 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.47 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 508% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $653.89 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions