AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
$566.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.0% above fair value
You pay
$566.56
Bear
$161.19
Fair
$287.53
Bull
$443.33
Bear
$161.19
-71.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$287.53
-49.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$443.33
-21.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
74.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
28.7%
vs 19.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$660.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $287.53 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 508% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $660.83 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions