AXIA
AXIA Energia S.A.
$10.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.4% below fair value
You pay
$10.77
Bear
$11.58
Fair
$16.17
Bull
$20.50
Bear
$11.58
+7.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.17
+50.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$20.50
+90.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $16.17 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1993 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions