AXIA
AXIA Energia S.A.
$10.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.4% below fair value
You pay
$10.22
Bear
$18.75
Fair
$26.47
Bull
$33.99
Bear
$18.75
+83.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.47
+159.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$33.99
+232.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.6%
vs 9.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.47 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1981 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions