AX
Axos Financial, Inc.
$98.16
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.2% above fair value
You pay
$98.16
Bear
$64.67
Fair
$92.39
Bull
$120.11
Bear
$64.67
-34.1%
ROTCE 12.9% → 1.26x TBV
Fair
$92.39
-5.9%
ROTCE 17.2% → 1.87x TBV
Bull
$120.11
+22.4%
ROTCE 19.8% → 2.23x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (11.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.22x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.39 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly