AWR
American States Water Company
$82.14
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.3% above fair value
You pay
$82.14
Bear
$47.18
Fair
$53.92
Bull
$60.66
Bear
$47.18
-42.6%
$3.37 × 14x P/E
Fair
$53.92
-34.4%
$3.37 × 16x P/E
Bull
$60.66
-26.2%
$3.37 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$89.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.37, the base-case value is $53.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $159.46.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $159.46 (above our primary estimate by 196%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $89.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples