AVTR
Avantor, Inc.
$11.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 109.6% above fair value
You pay
$11.07
Bear
$4.52
Fair
$5.28
Bull
$6.36
Bear
$4.52
-59.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.28
-52.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$6.36
-42.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
24.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.5%
vs 3.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.10 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.10 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions