AVTR
Avantor, Inc.
$17.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.8% above fair value
You pay
$17.30
Bear
$6.02
Fair
$7.47
Bull
$8.84
Bear
$6.02
-65.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.47
-56.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.84
-48.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
25.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs 4.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$12.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.25 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions