AVT
Avnet, Inc.
$89.85
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.4% above fair value
You pay
$89.85
Bear
$66.34
Fair
$82.92
Bull
$99.50
Bear
$66.34
-26.2%
$5.43 × 12x P/E
Fair
$82.92
-7.7%
$5.43 × 15x P/E
Bull
$99.50
+10.7%
$5.43 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.33 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.92 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 97%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $144.13 (above our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples