AVPT
AvePoint, Inc.
$10.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.9% below fair value
You pay
$10.29
Bear
$9.11
Fair
$15.82
Bull
$24.76
Bear
$9.11
-11.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$15.82
+53.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.76
+140.6%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
32.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.60 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.82 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions