AVPT
AvePoint, Inc.
$12.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.1% below fair value
You pay
$12.68
Bear
$9.00
Fair
$15.67
Bull
$24.55
Bear
$9.00
-29.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$15.67
+23.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.55
+93.6%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
42.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.1%
vs 22.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.67 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions