AVPT
AvePoint, Inc.
$14.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.7% below fair value
You pay
$14.30
Bear
$9.10
Fair
$15.84
Bull
$24.81
Bear
$9.10
-36.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$15.84
+10.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.81
+73.5%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
49.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.0%
vs 22.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $15.84 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions