AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
$11.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.3% above fair value
You pay
$11.29
Bear
$7.42
Fair
$9.01
Bull
$10.60
Bear
$7.42
-34.3%
$0.53 × 14x P/E
Fair
$9.01
-20.2%
$0.53 × 17x P/E
Bull
$10.60
-6.1%
$0.53 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.53$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.53, the base-case value is $9.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples