AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
$13.46
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.7% above fair value
You pay
$13.46
Bear
$10.19
Fair
$12.38
Bull
$14.56
Bear
$10.19
-24.2%
$0.68 × 14x P/E
Fair
$12.38
-8.0%
$0.68 × 17x P/E
Bull
$14.56
+8.2%
$0.68 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples