AVNW
Aviat Networks, Inc.
$20.45
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.0% above fair value
You pay
$20.45
Bear
$16.04
Fair
$20.05
Bull
$24.06
Bear
$16.04
-21.6%
$0.90 × 15x P/E
Fair
$20.05
-2.0%
$0.90 × 19x P/E
Bull
$24.06
+17.7%
$0.90 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.75 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.05 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 796%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.75 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples