AVNW
Aviat Networks, Inc.
$20.04
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.4% above fair value
You pay
$20.04
Bear
$15.65
Fair
$19.56
Bull
$23.48
Bear
$15.65
-21.9%
$0.90 × 15x P/E
Fair
$19.56
-2.4%
$0.90 × 19x P/E
Bull
$23.48
+17.2%
$0.90 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.56 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 796%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples