AVNW
Aviat Networks, Inc.
$20.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.9% above fair value
You pay
$20.58
Bear
$8.85
Fair
$11.63
Bull
$14.21
Bear
$8.85
-57.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.63
-43.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.21
-31.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
30.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.5%
vs 7.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$32.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.63 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 244% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions