AVNT
Avient Corporation
$37.79
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 51.8% above fair value
You pay
$37.79
Bear
$19.92
Fair
$24.90
Bull
$29.88
Bear
$19.92
-47.3%
$1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair
$24.90
-34.1%
$1.66 × 15x P/E
Bull
$29.88
-20.9%
$1.66 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.66$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$47.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $24.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.49.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 87%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 124% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples