AVNT
Avient Corporation
$34.31
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.8% below fair value
You pay
$34.31
Bear
$28.54
Fair
$35.66
Bull
$42.79
Bear
$28.54
-16.8%
$2.11 × 12x P/E
Fair
$35.66
+3.9%
$2.11 × 15x P/E
Bull
$42.79
+24.7%
$2.11 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.80 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.66 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 137%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.92 (below our primary estimate by 21%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.80 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples