AVIR Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$4.74
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 83.5% below fair value

You pay $4.74
Bear $24.66
Fair $28.77
Bull $32.88
Bear $24.66 +420.3% $1.37 × 18x P/E
Fair $28.77 +507.0% $1.37 × 21x P/E
Bull $32.88 +593.7% $1.37 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Summary

Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.37, the base-case value is $28.77 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples