AVIR
Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$4.42
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.6% below fair value
You pay
$4.42
Bear
$24.66
Fair
$28.77
Bull
$32.88
Bear
$24.66
+457.9%
$1.37 × 18x P/E
Fair
$28.77
+550.9%
$1.37 × 21x P/E
Bull
$32.88
+643.9%
$1.37 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
3.2x
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.37, the base-case value is $28.77 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples