AVDX
AvidXchange Holdings, Inc.
$10.00
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.5% below fair value
You pay
$10.00
Bear
$7.90
Fair
$15.26
Bull
$24.18
Bear
$7.90
-21.0%
14% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$15.26
+52.6%
24% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$24.18
+141.8%
31% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
24.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (24%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
60%
Implied Market Multiple
4.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$11.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Projecting 24% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 14% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $15.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.86 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep