AVDX
AvidXchange Holdings, Inc.
$10.00
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.6% below fair value
You pay
$10.00
Bear
$7.30
Fair
$14.20
Bull
$22.60
Bear
$7.30
-27.0%
14% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$14.20
+42.0%
24% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$22.60
+126.0%
31% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (24%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
61%
Implied Market Multiple
4.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.86 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.86 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep