AVDL
Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc
$21.64
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.7% above fair value
You pay
$21.64
Bear
$17.07
Fair
$19.91
Bull
$22.75
Bear
$17.07
-21.1%
$0.93 × 18x P/E
Fair
$19.91
-8.0%
$0.93 × 21x P/E
Bull
$22.75
+5.1%
$0.93 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.43 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.91 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples