AVA
Avista Corporation
$37.23
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.2% below fair value
You pay
$37.23
Bear
$33.32
Fair
$38.08
Bull
$42.84
Bear
$33.32
-10.5%
$2.38 × 14x P/E
Fair
$38.08
+2.3%
$2.38 × 16x P/E
Bull
$42.84
+15.1%
$2.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.38, the base-case value is $38.08 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.34.
Warnings
The company pays out 83% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples