AUPH
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$16.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.8% below fair value
You pay
$16.65
Bear
$22.24
Fair
$34.51
Bull
$48.62
Bear
$22.24
+33.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.51
+107.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$48.62
+192.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.3%
vs 16.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
116%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions