AUPH
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$15.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.8% below fair value
You pay
$15.78
Bear
$17.52
Fair
$27.10
Bull
$38.11
Bear
$17.52
+11.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$27.10
+71.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$38.11
+141.5%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.6%
vs 16.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 153% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions