AUPH
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$15.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.0% below fair value
You pay
$15.22
Bear
$18.59
Fair
$28.74
Bull
$40.43
Bear
$18.59
+22.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$28.74
+88.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$40.43
+165.6%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.74 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 100% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions