AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
$39.74
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.7% above fair value
You pay
$39.74
Bear
$26.56
Fair
$37.95
Bull
$49.33
Bear
$26.56
-33.2%
ROTCE 6.9% → 0.63x TBV
Fair
$37.95
-4.5%
ROTCE 9.3% → 1.13x TBV
Bull
$49.33
+24.1%
ROTCE 10.6% → 1.43x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.3%
8.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.92x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$48.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.3% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.13x on $20.71 tangible book, implying $37.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.53.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $47.53 (25% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly