AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
$42.23
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.7% above fair value
You pay
$42.23
Bear
$27.97
Fair
$39.96
Bull
$51.95
Bear
$27.97
-33.8%
ROTCE 6.9% → 0.65x TBV
Fair
$39.96
-5.4%
ROTCE 9.3% → 1.15x TBV
Bull
$51.95
+23.0%
ROTCE 10.6% → 1.46x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.04x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.96 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly