ATRC
AtriCure, Inc.
$55.81
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 174.8% above fair value
You pay
$55.81
Bear
$11.54
Fair
$20.31
Bull
$31.57
Bear
$11.54
-79.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$20.31
-63.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.57
-43.4%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
142.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
35.3%
vs 20.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$57.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $20.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.29 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions