ATRC
AtriCure, Inc.
$34.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.2% above fair value
You pay
$34.95
Bear
$14.31
Fair
$24.75
Bull
$38.16
Bear
$14.31
-59.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.75
-29.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.16
+9.2%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
114.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
32.3%
vs 20.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.33 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $51.33 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions