ATR
AptarGroup, Inc.
$116.23
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.4% below fair value
You pay
$116.23
Bear
$93.39
Fair
$116.74
Bull
$140.09
Bear
$93.39
-19.6%
$6.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$116.74
+0.4%
$6.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$140.09
+20.5%
$6.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $188.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.74 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $55.67 (below our primary estimate by 40%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $188.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples