ATR
AptarGroup, Inc.
$126.55
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.5% above fair value
You pay
$126.55
Bear
$70.56
Fair
$88.20
Bull
$105.84
Bear
$70.56
-44.2%
$5.88 × 12x P/E
Fair
$88.20
-30.3%
$5.88 × 15x P/E
Bull
$105.84
-16.4%
$5.88 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.88$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$148.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.88, the base-case value is $88.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $62.54.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $62.54 (below our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $148.33 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples