ATR
AptarGroup, Inc.
$130.00
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.0% above fair value
You pay
$130.00
Bear
$87.39
Fair
$109.24
Bull
$131.09
Bear
$87.39
-32.8%
$6.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$109.24
-16.0%
$6.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$131.09
+0.8%
$6.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $158.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.24 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $62.54 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $158.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples