ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
$162.03
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.0% above fair value
You pay
$162.03
Bear
$110.78
Fair
$126.60
Bull
$142.43
Bear
$110.78
-31.6%
$7.46 × 15x P/E
Fair
$126.60
-21.9%
$7.46 × 17x P/E
Bull
$142.43
-12.1%
$7.46 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
7.46$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$187.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.46, the base-case value is $126.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $187.83 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples