ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
$170.11
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.1% above fair value
You pay
$170.11
Bear
$122.92
Fair
$140.48
Bull
$158.05
Bear
$122.92
-27.7%
$7.50 × 15x P/E
Fair
$140.48
-17.4%
$7.50 × 17x P/E
Bull
$158.05
-7.1%
$7.50 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.25 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.48 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $1644.21 (above our primary estimate by 1192%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $180.25 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples