ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
$48.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 86.4% above fair value
You pay
$48.83
Bear
$20.31
Fair
$26.20
Bull
$31.59
Bear
$20.31
-58.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$26.20
-46.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$31.59
-35.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
31.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions