ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
$50.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.7% above fair value
You pay
$50.03
Bear
$22.53
Fair
$29.15
Bull
$35.22
Bear
$22.53
-55.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.15
-41.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.22
-29.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
31.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.1%
vs 7.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.15 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions