ATKR
Atkore Inc.
$84.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.7% below fair value
You pay
$84.75
Bear
$86.83
Fair
$111.02
Bull
$133.29
Bear
$86.83
+2.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$111.02
+31.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$133.29
+57.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $79.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 50% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions