ATKR
Atkore Inc.
$94.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.4% below fair value
You pay
$94.84
Bear
$115.67
Fair
$159.16
Bull
$201.83
Bear
$115.67
+22.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$159.16
+67.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$201.83
+112.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.6%
vs 10.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$76.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
109%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $159.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $76.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 109% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions