ATKR
Atkore Inc.
$73.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.5% below fair value
You pay
$73.42
Bear
$86.36
Fair
$110.42
Bull
$132.57
Bear
$86.36
+17.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$110.42
+50.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$132.57
+80.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.7%
vs 7.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $76.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions