ATI
ATI Inc.
$191.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 303.7% above fair value
You pay
$191.84
Bear
$33.80
Fair
$47.52
Bull
$60.65
Bear
$33.80
-82.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$47.52
-75.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.65
-68.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
69.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.5%
vs 9.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$242.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $47.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $242.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions