ATH
Athene Holding Ltd.
$83.33
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 25.0% below fair value
You pay
$83.33
Bear
$74.45
Fair
$111.11
Bull
$133.10
Bear
$74.45
-10.7%
ROTCE 12.4% → 0.87x TBV
Fair
$111.11
+33.3%
ROTCE 16.5% → 1.30x TBV
Bull
$133.10
+59.7%
ROTCE 19.0% → 1.55x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (16.5%) vs. cost of equity (13.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.97x
Summary
With ROTCE of 16.5% vs. 13.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.30x on $85.65 tangible book, implying $111.11 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly