ATH
Athene Holding Ltd.
$83.33
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 73.2% below fair value
You pay
$83.33
Bear
$217.76
Fair
$311.08
Bull
$404.40
Bear
$217.76
+161.3%
ROTCE 12.4% → 0.87x TBV
Fair
$311.08
+273.3%
ROTCE 16.5% → 1.30x TBV
Bull
$404.40
+385.3%
ROTCE 19.0% → 1.55x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
16.5%
13.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (16.5%) vs. cost of equity (13.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.21x
Summary
With ROTCE of 16.5% vs. 13.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.30x on $69.15 tangible book, implying $311.08 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly