ATEX
Anterix Inc.
$86.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1694.4% above fair value
Bear
$4.83
-94.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.83
-94.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.83
-94.4%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$115.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
96%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $115.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 96% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions