ATEX
Anterix Inc.
$100.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 468.1% above fair value
Bear
$17.66
-82.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.66
-82.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$17.66
-82.4%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.66 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions