ASUR
Asure Software, Inc.
$7.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.9% below fair value
You pay
$7.26
Bear
$13.82
Fair
$24.97
Bull
$38.31
Bear
$13.82
+90.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.97
+243.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.31
+427.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.4%
vs 18.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$14.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.75 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 69% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions