ASUR
Asure Software, Inc.
$8.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.5% below fair value
You pay
$8.14
Bear
$9.91
Fair
$18.30
Bull
$28.35
Bear
$9.91
+21.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.30
+124.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$28.35
+248.3%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
18.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.9%
vs 18.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.75 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.75 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions