ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
$37.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.6% below fair value
You pay
$37.97
Bear
$23.18
Fair
$51.01
Bull
$85.13
Bear
$23.18
-39.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.01
+34.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$85.13
+124.2%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
33.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 19.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.60 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.01 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 172% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions