ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
$37.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.3% below fair value
You pay
$37.55
Bear
$39.02
Fair
$80.40
Bull
$131.66
Bear
$39.02
+3.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$80.40
+114.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$131.66
+250.6%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.3%
vs 19.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $80.40 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 172% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions