ASR
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.
$268.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.4% below fair value
You pay
$268.57
Bear
$313.71
Fair
$483.17
Bull
$663.04
Bear
$313.71
+16.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$483.17
+79.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$663.04
+146.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.4%
vs 13.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $375.75 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $483.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $375.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0574 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions