ASR
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.
$239.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.2% below fair value
You pay
$239.14
Bear
$375.20
Fair
$601.25
Bull
$849.80
Bear
$375.20
+56.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$601.25
+151.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$849.80
+255.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.3%
vs 14.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$379.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $601.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $379.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0542 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions