ASR
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.
$301.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.3% below fair value
You pay
$301.98
Bear
$331.43
Fair
$532.58
Bull
$753.47
Bear
$331.43
+9.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$532.58
+76.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$753.47
+149.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $365.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $532.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $365.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0578 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions