ASPN
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
$5.79
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 165.6% above fair value
You pay
$5.79
Bear
$1.45
Fair
$2.18
Bull
$2.90
Bear
$1.45
-75.0%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$2.18
-62.3%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$2.90
-50.0%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
34.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.88 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.18 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $4.88 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case