ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$47.82
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.8% below fair value
You pay
$47.82
Bear
$78.71
Fair
$89.95
Bull
$101.20
Bear
$78.71
+64.6%
$6.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$89.95
+88.1%
$6.26 × 16x P/E
Bull
$101.20
+111.6%
$6.26 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.13 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $59.13 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 70% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples