ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$53.98
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.1% below fair value
You pay
$53.98
Bear
$77.56
Fair
$88.64
Bull
$99.72
Bear
$77.56
+43.7%
$5.54 × 14x P/E
Fair
$88.64
+64.2%
$5.54 × 16x P/E
Bull
$99.72
+84.7%
$5.54 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
5.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$58.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.54, the base-case value is $88.64 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $58.13 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 52% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples