ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$46.49
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.3% below fair value
You pay
$46.49
Bear
$78.61
Fair
$89.84
Bull
$101.07
Bear
$78.61
+69.1%
$6.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$89.84
+93.2%
$6.26 × 16x P/E
Bull
$101.07
+117.4%
$6.26 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.67 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $58.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 71% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples