ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
$1,632.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.7% above fair value
You pay
$1,632.90
Bear
$827.18
Fair
$1,544.77
Bull
$2,480.07
Bear
$827.18
-49.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1,544.77
-5.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2,480.07
+51.9%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
49.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1694.00 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1544.77 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1628 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions