ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
$1,737.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.4% above fair value
You pay
$1,737.17
Bear
$810.26
Fair
$1,518.63
Bull
$2,443.90
Bear
$810.26
-53.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1,518.63
-12.6%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2,443.90
+40.7%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
52.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.9%
vs 22.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$2305.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1518.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2305.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1385 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions