ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
$1,582.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.2% below fair value
You pay
$1,582.95
Bear
$913.85
Fair
$1,706.63
Bull
$2,739.93
Bear
$913.85
-42.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1,706.63
+7.8%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2,739.93
+73.1%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
49.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.1%
vs 21.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2305.75 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1706.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2305.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1385 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions