ASM
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
$6.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 438.7% above fair value
You pay
$6.49
Bear
$1.20
Fair
$1.20
Bull
$1.25
Bear
$1.20
-81.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1.20
-81.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1.25
-80.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
105.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.6%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$9.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions