ASLE
AerSale Corporation
$6.24
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.9% below fair value
You pay
$6.24
Bear
$6.16
Fair
$7.69
Bull
$9.23
Bear
$6.16
-1.4%
$0.47 × 13x P/E
Fair
$7.69
+23.3%
$0.47 × 16x P/E
Bull
$9.23
+48.0%
$0.47 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $7.69 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 160%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples