ASLE
AerSale Corporation
$4.76
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.6% below fair value
You pay
$4.76
Bear
$4.26
Fair
$5.33
Bull
$6.39
Bear
$4.26
-10.5%
$0.32 × 13x P/E
Fair
$5.33
+11.9%
$0.32 × 16x P/E
Bull
$6.39
+34.3%
$0.32 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.4x
0.32$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.32, the base-case value is $5.33 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 80%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples