ASIX
AdvanSix Inc.
$16.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
89.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.0%
vs 5.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions