ASH
Ashland Inc.
$68.01
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.3% above fair value
You pay
$68.01
Bear
$49.78
Fair
$62.23
Bull
$74.69
Bear
$49.78
-26.8%
$4.03 × 12x P/E
Fair
$62.23
-8.5%
$4.03 × 15x P/E
Bull
$74.69
+9.8%
$4.03 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.50 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.23 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $95.91 (above our primary estimate by 59%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples