ASGN
ASGN Incorporated
$20.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.9% below fair value
You pay
$20.96
Bear
$65.29
Fair
$72.15
Bull
$81.06
Bear
$65.29
+211.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$72.15
+244.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$81.06
+286.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
6.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.7%
vs 4.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$34.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
108%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $72.15 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 108% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions