ASGN
ASGN Incorporated
$20.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.2% below fair value
You pay
$20.96
Bear
$47.44
Fair
$54.02
Bull
$61.53
Bear
$47.44
+126.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$54.02
+157.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$61.53
+193.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.60 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.02 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.60 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions