ASC
Ardmore Shipping Corporation
$16.18
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.1% below fair value
You pay
$16.18
Bear
$28.19
Fair
$35.24
Bull
$42.28
Bear
$28.19
+74.2%
$2.71 × 12x P/E
Fair
$35.24
+117.8%
$2.71 × 15x P/E
Bull
$42.28
+161.3%
$2.71 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.24 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 208%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 114% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples