AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
$27.76
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 62.3% above fair value
You pay
$27.76
Bear
$13.68
Fair
$17.10
Bull
$20.52
Bear
$13.68
-50.7%
$0.76 × 18x P/E
Fair
$17.10
-38.4%
$0.76 × 22x P/E
Bull
$20.52
-26.1%
$0.76 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
0.76$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$44.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.76, the base-case value is $17.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.22 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples