AS Amer Sports, Inc.
$34.80
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 14.5% above fair value

You pay $34.80
Bear $24.31
Fair $30.38
Bull $36.47
Bear $24.31 -30.1% $1.10 × 18x P/E
Fair $30.38 -12.7% $1.10 × 22x P/E
Bull $36.47 +4.8% $1.10 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.38 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 45%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples