AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
$35.26
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.4% above fair value
You pay
$35.26
Bear
$24.04
Fair
$30.04
Bull
$36.06
Bear
$24.04
-31.8%
$1.10 × 18x P/E
Fair
$30.04
-14.8%
$1.10 × 22x P/E
Bull
$36.06
+2.3%
$1.10 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.29 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.04 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 45%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.29 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples