ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$16.61
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.5% below fair value
You pay
$16.61
Bear
$31.53
Fair
$38.14
Bull
$44.76
Bear
$31.53
+89.8%
$2.62 FFO × 18x
Fair
$38.14
+129.7%
$2.62 FFO × 22x
Bull
$44.76
+169.5%
$2.62 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.62) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.14 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.89 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 206% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify