ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$16.57
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.3% below fair value
You pay
$16.57
Bear
$32.05
Fair
$38.77
Bull
$45.49
Bear
$32.05
+93.4%
$2.60 FFO × 18x
Fair
$38.77
+134.0%
$2.60 FFO × 22x
Bull
$45.49
+174.6%
$2.60 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.60) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.25 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.77 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.89 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.25 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 150% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify