AROC
Archrock, Inc.
$29.39
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 566.2% above fair value
You pay
$29.39
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$4.41
Bull
$13.66
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $190M × 10x
Fair
$4.41
-85.0%
FCF $246M × 13x
Bull
$13.66
-53.5%
FCF $301M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$42.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $4.41 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $13.66 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($13.80) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.17 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential