ARMK
Aramark
$54.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.6% above fair value
You pay
$54.97
Bear
$18.36
Fair
$27.82
Bull
$36.53
Bear
$18.36
-66.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.82
-49.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$36.53
-33.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.7%
vs 7.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$69.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.20 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions