ARIS
Aris Mining Corporation
$14.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.1% above fair value
You pay
$14.56
Bear
$7.63
Fair
$13.86
Bull
$21.43
Bear
$7.63
-47.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$13.86
-4.8%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$21.43
+47.2%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
45.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.0%
vs 18.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.29 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.86 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $23.29 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions