ARHS
Arhaus, Inc.
$8.71
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.4% below fair value
You pay
$8.71
Bear
$10.08
Fair
$11.52
Bull
$12.96
Bear
$10.08
+15.7%
$0.48 × 21x P/E
Fair
$11.52
+32.3%
$0.48 × 24x P/E
Bull
$12.96
+48.8%
$0.48 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.48$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$10.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.48, the base-case value is $11.52 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 177% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples