ARCT
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
$7.03
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.4% below fair value
You pay
$7.03
Bear
$5.07
Fair
$7.59
Bull
$10.14
Bear
$5.07
-27.9%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$7.59
+8.0%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$10.14
+44.2%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.59 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case