ARCT
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
$11.07
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.2% below fair value
You pay
$11.07
Bear
$15.22
Fair
$29.32
Bull
$40.67
Bear
$15.22
+37.5%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$29.32
+164.9%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$40.67
+267.4%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$30.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $29.32 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 38% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 95% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep