ARCB
ArcBest Corp
$129.98
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 198.0% above fair value
You pay
$129.98
Bear
$31.72
Fair
$43.61
Bull
$55.51
Bear
$31.72
-75.6%
$7.93 × 4x
Fair
$43.61
-66.4%
$7.93 × 6x
Bull
$55.51
-57.3%
$7.93 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
7.93$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.93)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$164.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $7.93 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $43.61 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 3.2x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 3.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $164.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing