AR
Antero Resources Corporation
$38.53
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.4% above fair value
You pay
$38.53
Bear
$7.77
Fair
$30.72
Bull
$61.32
Bear
$7.77
-79.8%
FCF $915M × 8x
Fair
$30.72
-20.3%
FCF $1307M × 11x
Bull
$61.32
+59.1%
FCF $1699M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$50.18
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $30.72 per share. Range: $7.77 (bear) to $61.32 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($16.03) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -80%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.18 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential