AR
Antero Resources Corporation
$33.23
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.1% below fair value
You pay
$33.23
Bear
$8.42
Fair
$36.16
Bull
$73.17
Bear
$8.42
-74.7%
FCF $870M × 8x
Fair
$36.16
+8.8%
FCF $1243M × 11x
Bull
$73.17
+120.2%
FCF $1616M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.89 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.16 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($15.90) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -80%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.89 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential