AR
Antero Resources Corporation
$35.90
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.9% above fair value
You pay
$35.90
Bear
$7.77
Fair
$30.72
Bull
$61.32
Bear
$7.77
-78.3%
FCF $915M × 8x
Fair
$30.72
-14.4%
FCF $1307M × 11x
Bull
$61.32
+70.8%
FCF $1699M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$49.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $30.72 per share. Range: $7.77 (bear) to $61.32 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($16.03) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -78%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.67 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential