APTV Aptiv PLC
$57.36
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 26.7% below fair value

You pay $57.36
Bear $68.51
Fair $78.29
Bull $88.07
Bear $68.51 +19.4% $4.27 × 15x P/E
Fair $78.29 +36.5% $4.27 × 17x P/E
Bull $88.07 +53.5% $4.27 × 19x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.89 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.29 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 470%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 117% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples