APTV
Aptiv PLC
$58.34
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.8% below fair value
You pay
$58.34
Bear
$66.96
Fair
$76.52
Bull
$86.09
Bear
$66.96
+14.8%
$4.27 × 15x P/E
Fair
$76.52
+31.2%
$4.27 × 17x P/E
Bull
$86.09
+47.6%
$4.27 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.52 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 470%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 117% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples