APTV Aptiv PLC
$45.69
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 37.3% below fair value

You pay $45.69
Bear $63.78
Fair $72.89
Bull $82.00
Bear $63.78 +39.6% $4.27 × 15x P/E
Fair $72.89 +59.5% $4.27 × 17x P/E
Bull $82.00 +79.5% $4.27 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
4.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (33 analysts) $68.90
Divergence from AlphaVal 6%

Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.27, the base-case value is $72.89 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 470%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 117% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples