APPN
Appian Corporation
$34.76
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.2% below fair value
You pay
$34.76
Bear
$23.55
Fair
$49.77
Bull
$79.85
Bear
$23.55
-32.2%
12% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$49.77
+43.2%
21% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$79.85
+129.7%
27% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
21.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (21%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
62%
Implied Market Multiple
3.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$30.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Projecting 21% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 9% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $49.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $30.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep