APPN
Appian Corporation
$51.57
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.3% above fair value
You pay
$51.57
Bear
$24.33
Fair
$51.41
Bull
$82.48
Bear
$24.33
-52.8%
12% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$51.41
-0.3%
21% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$82.48
+59.9%
27% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
21.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (21%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
62%
Implied Market Multiple
5.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$32.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Projecting 21% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 9% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $51.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep