APPF
AppFolio Inc.
$210.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.4% above fair value
You pay
$210.62
Bear
$121.77
Fair
$201.69
Bull
$295.96
Bear
$121.77
-42.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$201.69
-4.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$295.96
+40.5%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
39.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.9%
vs 17.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$252.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $201.69 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 50% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions