APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
$120.47
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.5% below fair value
You pay
$120.47
Bear
$126.78
Fair
$181.12
Bull
$235.45
Bear
$126.78
+5.2%
ROTCE 19.3% → 1.79x TBV
Fair
$181.12
+50.3%
ROTCE 25.0% → 2.54x TBV
Bull
$235.45
+95.4%
ROTCE 29.6% → 2.99x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (25.7%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.99x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $153.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.12 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.73 (88% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly